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Good idea...I probably should have stepped out at the "tinfoil hat" comment. Clearly personalities overtook issues a while back.
Thanks.
We can start another thread and compare our backgrounds there. Hint, I am not a young man, and I do not concede that my experience is inferior to yours in regards to business management, strategy, analysis, or experience dealing with capital markets.
If your experience has given you specific information about the future of Carrara, please provide a citation. If your experience has given you information about Daz's financial statements, please provide a citation. You complain about generalities. Don't just say you have a bunch of experience. You don't know if you have more or less experience than the other people on the forum. Be specific about what you know about Carrara and how that knowledge can be confirmed.
To the extent the conversation on page 7 of this thread turned to faux calculations of profit maximizing decisions, I'd rather have a 15-year-old who can produce a Daz prospectus and other securities disclosures or an application for a bank line of credit than a random person who worked 30 years in the software industry but didn't have any information specific to Daz's revenues and costs.
My post above was being written while Chris, Hjake, and Joe were posting. Sorry for the way it looks out of order.
When I read what you have written, it seems like business experience/educated guess have no place in speculation about the future of Carrara. If all speculation should be based on data I'm not sure how much business decisions would actually get done in the world. You would be amazed at how many $500 million+ dollar business decisions end up with someone going by their gut (business experience/educated guess) after they have analyzed the data. What people say about a something can often tell you more than the data they provide? Data tells you about the past so you can learn from your mistakes but doesn't do much to predict the future.
I had a client that was about to be bought out by a VERY large US electronics company and would move the Canadian production facility to China. Our sales to them were constantly growing and we had many prototypes on the table. Their management's commitment to us verbally and in writing along with some excellent data indicated they were going to stay in Canada. But every few weeks I went to the factory floor to do a count on our products they had left in stock. Through socializing with engineers and production people my gut told me we should not scale up our production because within two years thing would be very different. My gut was right.
Data will only take you so far. That intangible that makes us human is what predicts the potential outcomes not data driven analysis. Most business decisions are made on personal experience and our emotional bias. Although you will often hear it is not personal, just business, in reality it is alway personal cloaked in business. Calling it business it just a way avoiding saying your interests are not my interests, good luck to you.
Actually you can speculate on a company's revenues and costs based on their size, location, industry, and products that they produce that are similar to competitors products. As well as the competitors themselves. This is actually one of the ways a company determines the value of a market and their share of it. As well as whether the market is growing or shrinking. Its part of a sales forecast.
You can also speculate on their development costs. It is probably one of the reasons Daz limits how many interviews it gives. That article on Issuu was very informative about the company and its future.
Piecing together tid bits from all over is a part of corporate intelligence gathering. Not just what the company says or does but what their competition may say or do.
Renderosity change of Prime membership says something about Daz and the industry.
When I was in military communcations MANY years ago they were constantly hammering on us about comms security. Even a simple request for general supplies could be used to help piece together what our side was doing or where troops were stationed. In a way you could say it is the crumbs that make the cookie.
Hjake - please don't misunderstand me.
I have been involved in capital markets for 30 years. I have been on the business side, funding side (bank and securities), regulatory side, and even on the academic side. This thread went on for 7 pages before I jumped in (other than a two sentence description of an example of a feature added in C8.5). This recent bit was about the assertion that anyone with business and capital markets experience would know that Daz has abandoned Carrara, that no one else would ever pick it up, along with sample calculations being used to assert that no profit-seeking business would fund Carrara going forward. Well, I am arrogant enough to think I know a bit about business strategy and I haven't seen any specific information produced to convince me one way or the other. My gut is till open to go either way. Remember, I am not conclusory enough. So, I got challenged that I was not specific but others were. Well, OK, I said show me the specifics.
Now, consider this quote from your recent post.
"You would be amazed at how many $500 million+ dollar business decisions end up with someone going by their gut (business experience/educated guess) after they have analyzed the data."
No, actually I would not be amazed at all. I am the guy who said Daz might drop Carrara or Daz might develop Carrara. I am the guy who said that Daz might sell Carrara and the purchaser might let it die, or Daz might sell Carrara and the purchaser might turn it around. I am the guy who gave the automaker example of the frustrated engineers leaving the established firm to strike out on their own, doing well for a while and then not so well.
Someone might be amazed that business decisions are sometimes made with gut instincts, not just what past practice suggests, but that person would not be me.
Well egg on my face. I should have read your post more carefully (or gone to bed a while). I glad I was mistaken about the business data analysis thing. Thanks for explaining it and not flaming me.
Now back to our regular program. :-)
something for david and pam, tried to post this last night, too many gremlins!
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not having much luck there Andrew
ha hah yes, but I think for the best!
Moderator Announcement
"Today we are having a reprise of April 1st, courtesy of Head Wax"
Yes , you have caught me out ! My apologies ., ! I am early for next April ! ;) a small joke amongst friends.
Cheers from oz :)
Noticed th1s on the Hexagon thread and thought i might be of intrest here.
September 3 Flag
This would be a broked item. Hex is far from dead and a new version is in beta
There are references to both Hex and Carrara being in private beta http://docs.daz3d.com/doku.php/public/software/hexagon/2/start and http://docs.daz3d.com/doku.php/public/software/carrara/8_5/start. No indication when those pages were posted - could be current, could be several years ago :)
Here's holding thumbs they are current!
I believe the Carrara one at least is a fairly recent update and so refers to a current beta.
if you run that script found elsewhere it makes it work ;-)
heh that's a crack up. I nearly spilt my keyboard all over my coffee!
now all the other 'massage' therapists in the other cubicles are looking at me strangely :)
I wonder how Winston Smith is these days ? ;)
You know it's dead around here when there are more spamming posts than user posts a day!
Yeah, I noticed that as well.
I represent that remark.... I mean 'resent'
With all this speculation, you would think Daz might have some pity and give us an update. Every company has a plan. But It's all about sharing that plan.
I like Daz, I love the models but I find there lack of keeping the paying customer informed about the future of a product aweful. I just purchsed Carrara, it was a good deal and I got M/V45 propacks with it. I would love to see that they are going to update this program, bring it inline with Studio or even say Studio will be given the feature this has. The silent treatment is just plain rude.
I agree. I have a substantial investment in Carrara and related content. I will be retiring soon, and will finally have time to put into my projects. I must decide if I am going to invest the time to really learn Carrara, or go with something else. I don't want to spend the time only to find out a year from now that Carrara is not going to be supported. If the plan is to roll the Carrara features into Daz Studio, I will be very happy with that - but please let us know! VUE 2015 is on sale....the features in the newest version of Blender are seductive.....decision time.
For me Carrara is the only full 3D environment which supports Poser and DAZ figures natively, and is still a hugely productive environment, even without enhancements such as Genesis 3 support and proper dynamic clothing (oh, how I wish for that one!). Yes, I wish there were more updates, and yes, I wish that DAZ were more forthcoming with their plans, but I know they don't want to promise things in advance of knowing they can deliver them. Even as it stands, it offers me the best environment for what I want to do. If the likes of Blender ever offered good native support for Poser and DAZ figures, then maybe that would be enough to tempt me away, but as of now, I'm sticking with Carrara.
I agree. I use Vue Complete and Poser for specific purposes (landscapes and Poser content that doesn't work in Carrara, resp.), and even Lightwave for very specific content, but for short animations with purchased Poser format content, its Carrara. That's about 95% of my 3D work. I'm not too concerned about DAZ's plans.
I reported a bunch of El Capitan-related bugs this week (mostly to do with file dialogs and texture corruption), and the response was "Our QA department has not yet tested Carrrara on this OS, however, I have shared what you have found and they will look into it as they are testing." Make of that what you will.